Isaiah Crowell has an 8th round ADP in redrafts, and 10th round ADP in startups. Here are 8 reasons to draft him and 10 running backs with higher ADP that he will outperform.
- Change of Scenery: Everything about the Jets team this year is a better opportunity for Isaiah Crowell than last year’s Browns team. They will have a more balanced running attack in Jeremy Bates’s West Coast offense. Plus, they have more offensive weapons for defenses to account for. And, they have a solid defense that will keep them in games.
- Competition: The Jets brought in Crowell to be their workhorse. Matt Forte has retired, Bilal Powell is 30, and although Elijah McGuire has potential, he won’t have the opportunities Crowell will have to start the season. The Jets wanted to bring Jerick McKinnon in to play the Duke Johnson role with Crowell as the lead back. McGuire can be the lesser Duke Johnson, but with Crowell’s catching and blocking abilities it won’t be like the Duke Johnson/Isaiah Crowell relationship from Cleveland.
- Durability: Isaiah Crowell has some pretty rare stats for a featured RB. He hasn’t missed a game in his 4 year career! He actually only missed a couple weeks of spring practice and played one game under a questionable tag. He is about as injury free as you can get.
- Freshness: He is 24 years old, 4 years in the league, and had more than 200 carries in one season. To go with the durability, his legs are fresh and ready to rumble. He has said that he didn’t think he had an opportunity in Cleveland to be a workhorse, but this is something he hopes to bring to the Jets.
- Run Defense: Crowell is now in an AFC East that had it’s top ranked defense, Miami, ranked 14th in the league and lost Ndamukong Suh in the offseason. These are not the punishing AFC North defenses he is used to facing. With the other 10 teams he will see this season he has the 4th easiest schedule for running backs.
- Opportunities: Without a doubt, he is going to get the ball a lot more than he did in Cleveland. Just as a team, the Jets have run the ball an average of 52 times a season more than the Browns over the last 4 years. If Crowell gets half of that, he should still have over 200 carries.
- Duke Johnson: Johnson had his best season and emerged as an effective pass catching back, who I thought would follow Jerick McKinnon into a full time role next season. That is, until the Browns resigned him. Johnson’s success took away from Crowell’s opportunities and on the current Jets roster there is no competition for Duke Johnson.
- 8th Round ADP: This is where this becomes a no brainer. Not many 200+ carry players are available in the 8th round. In fact, there are a lot of RBs with higher ADP’s, but have less chance to see the volume Crowell sees. Just to name 8: Ty Montgomery, CJ Anderson, Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Chris Thompson, Jamal Williams, and Tevin Coleman. And why not, here are 8 more: Rex Burkhead, Marshawn Lynch, Duke Johnson, Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, Tarik Cohen, Royce Freeman and Jay Ajayi. Considering the amount of volume, lack of competition, and offensive scheme, that is some pretty serious value for Isaiah Crowell.
Wrapping it up, RB2 might be the ceiling for Crowell, but at the place you can get him in redraft, he is worth it. I imagine you are going to see a lot of championship teams with this guy in the flex spot. In dynasty, I think he is a top candidate to buy low. In my own dynasty league, I spent a 2018 5th round pick and 2020 3rd round pick on him, and I plan on flipping him after this season for much more. He is a high volume guy, with little competition, on a solid team, with numbers he achieved in his career on the Cleveland Browns. It should be recognized how well Isaiah Crowell actually performed on a team that won just a single game in the last two years. This time around he gets to play with a team that can actually compete and he will get the touches. He will have no competition with other RBs, and he himself has zero injuries. With a great strength of schedule, this is the new chapter to his career that he has been waiting to write. He is by far the lowest drafted running back, with the best opportunity, to be a 3 down workhorse RB. If just a few things go his way: maintaining health, remaining lead back, and Jets staying competitive, I would project Crowell to have 229 carries, 1053 yards, 7 tds, 30 recs, 227 yards. Those are solid RB2 numbers in the 8th round of a redraft, 10th round for startups. At the very least, Isaiah Crowell can be quality flex option with the opportunity to be a solid RB2, and a top steal in 2018 drafts.
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