It’s officially #ChubbSZN and I’m more than here for it. The rookie from Georgia had been my second-ranked rookie throughout the offseason process, and those who held onto him or traded for him are being rewarded handsomely for their patience. With his two touchdown, 209 scrimmage-yard breakout in Week 10, followed by his RB3 overall performance in Week 12, there’s no better time to check in on Nick Chubb.
PPR Pts (Rank)
*Includes Chubb’s numbers from Week 7 - after Carlos Hyde was traded. Prior to Week 7, Chubb averaged just 2.67 touches on 5.5 snaps per game.
Since Week 7, Chubb has been getting fed the rock and is atop most rushing categories across the league. He’s tied with Adrian Peterson for rush attempts (106), has the second most rush yards (490), third most rushing touchdowns (4), and has the eighth highest yards per carry average (4.63) among running backs with more than 74 carries during this time. YPC is far from a perfect statistic, but this still gives us an idea of his ceiling, especially given his volume over those four games.
Even with the Browns trailing in the majority of the above games, going 2-3, Chubb has yet to see fewer than 18 carries per game. His usage in the passing game will be capped due to the presence of Duke Johnson, but the rushes are Chubb’s and Chubb’s alone, as his carries account for nearly 92% of running back carries for Cleveland.
Chubb started as the rookie 1.06 pick in DLF’s February ADP (going as late as 8 overall) and moved comfortably into the 1.03 spot in May (his latest mock pick was the six spot, twice). Chubb’s DLF Start-up ADP can be seen in the graph below.
Interestingly, Chubb’s lowest ADP value was 52.67 in August; has seen a jump of 17 spots to go with the increase in his role post-Hyde. By the end of the season, I won’t be surprised to see Chubb sitting comfortably in the second round of ADP data.
For the recent trades involving Nick Chubb, I’ll narrow the search using DLF’s Trade Finder from Week 7 on to reflect his true price.
- Nick Chubb for David Johnson
- Nick Chubb + 2019 2nd for Courtland Sutton + Christian Kirk + 2019 4th
- Nick Chubb + Christian Kirk for Corey Davis
- Nick Chubb + Golden Tate for DeAndre Hopkins + Jerick McKinnon
- Nick Chubb for Dalvin Cook
- Nick Chubb for Mike Evans
- Nick Chubb + Calvin Ridley + 2020 1st for Michael Thomas
Now isn’t the time to buy Chubb, but you can clearly get a nice return if looking to sell him. You can trade him straight up or add something on top to go big game hunting. Personally, I’d hold if you have him, but I’d understand a contender trading him away to bolster their championship run.
We’ve all seen the 92-yard touchdown rumble from Week 10, but how has he looked on the field outside of that? Let’s dive into some clips.
These cuts show up everywhere on Chubb’s film. He uses two here in quick succession while showing patience and vision to find the hole and burst through for chunk yardage.
Chubb’s patience and vision show up here again, but I chose this clip to show his strength. He sheds a tackle from Chris Jones (310 pounds) and then proceeds to take Reggie Ragland (252 pounds) for a 6 yard ride. That’s a big boy run.
Another great jump cut, with the impressive thing here being the burst he has immediately coming out of the cut. It’s easy to forget the gruesome injury Chubb suffered his sophomore year at Georgia and the questions which followed, and clips like this are why that has happened.
So we’ve seen patience, burst, agility, vision, and strength from number 24. What else could be left? How about balance. Chubb puts his arm down not once, but twice, to gain extra yards and he’s doing it while he’s dealing with contact all around him. The kid is special.
If you were able to acquire Nick Chubb prior to Week 7 you’re grinning from ear-to-ear. If you weren’t so lucky, now probably isn’t the time to try and get him on your dynasty squad. Having said that, I’d definitely be checking the temperature of whoever owns him. What might look like an “overpay” today could be cheap five months from now. With the youth that surrounds the Browns as a whole, the future is bright for Chubb and his dynasty owners.