Earlier this month we looked at some of the players I am looking to sell in dynasty. While it is very important to not miss the boat on excess value for players, it might be even more important to find players on the cheap that can contribute to your championship aspirations. Even if you do not agree with the players I have listed below, you can apply the same strategy. I like to focus on players that are coming back from injury and players that dynasty owners have misconceptions about because of a recent coaching/team change. This time of the year I also like to buy up rookie picks. They always increase in value over the next few months.
Guice was my unquestioned 1.02 in last years rookie draft and was consistently going in the third round of startup drafts up until he tragically tore his ACL in week one of the preseason. In college, at LSU, he had three games with over 250 rushing yards and at least 100 yards in 12 of his 36 career games. He is an angry runner that sometimes appears to seek out contact, which might have contributed to his lengthy injury history. Having said that, I am trying to acquire him anywhere I can. We are now about five months post injury and his Dynasty League Football ADP has dipped down to 35, from its high of 25.83 back in April. Below we can see a few other players with similar Dynasty Trade Calculator value. Sutton, Johnson and Michel have all flashed at times in their rookie seasons but haven't done anything to rise above the former 1.02 pick. Fournette is a hard sell for me, as you read about in my last article and I am a big fan of Aaron Jones but believe Guice’s ceiling is higher.
We are about five months removed from McKinnon’s ACL tear and will be a full year after by the start of the regular season. This is usually the target time frame for a player to back to “himself”. We all remember the massive hype surrounding McKinnon last offseason. His DLF ADP peaked at 30.83 in July of 2018 and was consistently a 3rd round startup pick up until he tore his ACL. Now with his ADP down to 84.5, he’s typically going around the 7/8 turn. This could be huge value once we get closer to the season and he is back on the field. To this point, there have been no significant changes in the 49ers coaching staff heading into next season. Over the last four seasons Shanahan has had great success with his starting Running Backs. This past season was his worst from a fantasy production standpoint, with often banged up backup Matt Breida finishing as the RB26. I expect McKinnon, knowing his skill set and Kyle Shanahan’s track record, to finish as a high-end RB2 or low-end RB1 if he can stay healthy. His current Dynasty Trade Calculator value for PPR leagues is 3.2, equivalent to about the 2.08 rookie pick.
Williams is one of the most intriguing free agent Wide Receivers this offseason. He has always had a ton of competition for targets with the Chargers. He has still managed to rack up just under 2500 receiving yards in the last three seasons. Even more impressive is what he has done when Keenan Allen has missed time. Excluding Williams’ rookie year where he only received five targets, here are his splits with and without Keenan Allen. That pace is good enough to be a mid-level WR2 each of the last three seasons. His current Dynasty Trade Calculator value is 4.3, which is equivalent to two early 3rd round picks. His January DLF ADP is 113.33, putting him the same range as players like Kenneth Dixon, Curtis Samuel and Jay Ajayi. Hopefully he goes somewhere where he will face a bit less competition for targets because for that price I will gladly take a chance on a guy that has consistently produced.
Fuller is another guy coming off of an injury that I am looking to trade for. He tore his ACL in week 8 against the Dolphins this past October. He will be over eight months removed from the injury by the time the season starts. In the seven games that he played in he finished the year with 32 catches for 503 yards and 4 touchdowns. Of those seven games he finished the week as a WR1 three times. Below are Will Fuller’s splits with and without Deshaun Watson. If Fuller could stay healthy and keep this pace while playing with Watson, he would put up enough points to be the WR4 in 2017 and WR10 in 2018. While I don’t think it is likely that he stays on a one touchdown per game pace, he could still have a great season. Per DLF’s ADP Fuller peaked as a third round startup pick in October 2018, but is now going in the sixth round as a WR3. Anytime I can grab a potential WR1 for a late 1st round rookie pick I’m all for it!
Stills is purely a cheap upside pick for me. His current DTC value is 2.7, which is equivalent to the 2.11 rookie pick. I think you will be able to acquire him for a third round pick though. Stills is a burner that is pretty much always on the field. He has only missed two games in his six season career, which is always a plus. Another real intriguing thing with Stills is this chart below from Pro Football Reference. He Is one of only five players since 1995 to have at least 250 receptions with over 4000 receiving yards and 30 touchdowns with at least 15 yards per target, all through 26 years of age. I can only imagine what he could with the same volume as the rest of the guys on this list.
Now with Adam Gase gone, hopefully the Dolphins offense can rebound a bit if Stills hangs around. The Dolphins do have an easy out on his contract this offseason that would allow him to be a free agent. I could see this being a possibility because of his hefty 9.75 million dollar cap hit. He finished as the WR25 in 2017 and was considered to be top 100 dynasty asset coming into this season. Now with his ADP down to 137.67, he is going off the board as the WR60. With him being a borderline WR6, I’ll gladly take a chance on him for the possible WR2/WR3 upside, especially in bestball or deep lineup leagues.
Andrews was the second Tight End off the board for the Ravens in last years NFL draft. Before they took Andrews in the third round, they selected Hayden Hurst in the first round. During the offseason there were lots of varying opinions on how the Tight End situation in Baltimore would play out. Overall it was kind of a jumbled mess. But there are a few things that we can extract from last season.
We can see that Andrews was by far the most productive Tight End of the group. He led the Ravens Tight Ends in every category that matters. To me, the thing that sticks out most with his stat line is that 28 of his 34 receptions were for first downs. He also had seven red zone targets, which came out to 10.3% of the team’s red zone targets. All of this added together, especially with Andrews being a rookie, shows promise. I’ll save you the comment about Jackson versus Flacco, below are his splits with and without Lamar Jackson. Andrews was actually on pace for more PPR fantasy points with Jackson. Andrews has a January DLF ADP of 139.50 and a Dynasty Trade Calculator value of 3.8 (about the same as the 2.07 rookie pick). The only younger Tight End that is being drafted before him or worth more is David Njoku. I’m not expecting him to jump into the top 5 or anything but a jump into the top 12 from his 2018 finish of TE17 is definitely reasonable.
I have seen a bunch of people on the “sell” side of the both Tampa Bay Tight Ends since Bruce Arians was hired as their Head Coach. I understand people being skeptical of any Tight End in an Arians system. His Tight End finishes in Arizona were atrocious. The top Tight End finish the entire time he was in Arizona was the TE28 in 2013. Some of his “notable” Tight Ends in Arizona include Rob Housler, Darren Fells, Troy Niklas and Jermaine Gresham. Before Arians was in Arizona he spent five seasons as Pittsburgh's Offensive Coordinator from 2007 – 2011. While with the Steelers he had a better Tight End than he ever had in Arizona. Heath Miller had a very good five season stretch with Arians as the OC. His average stat line with Arians was 52 receptions for 602 yards and 4 touchdowns. This average stat line is good for 137 PPR fantasy points. This would have been good enough for the TE10 each of the last two seasons. Here we can compare each Tight End with Player Profiler’s metrics:
O.J. Howard is a much better athlete than Heath Miller. Howard will also be the best Tight End that Arians has had to work with. We all know the narrative that Jameis Winston loves the Tight End. Howard will definitely still have a positive roll moving forward. All of the negative things I told you earlier is exactly why he is a “buy” candidate. He is valued as the TE6 per Dynasty Trade Calculator with a value of 9.5 (between the 1.09 and 1.10 rookie pick). His January ADP per Dynasty League Football is 58.17, but all the mock drafts were already well in progress before the Arians hire. Go out and find the Howard owner in your league and see if you can get him below market value with all this negative hype.
As always feel free to reach out to me on Twitter at @GeraldParker385 to discuss these or any other players. Be sure to check out my “Six Players I’m Looking to Sell” article from earlier this month here.