This is entering what is probably my favorite time of the year. The NFL draft is nearing and we get to start re-tooling our rosters for next years’ season. It is a long road in the offseason and one thing that I cannot stress enough is that we are currently about eight months away from having to worry about our starting line-ups. Do not shy away from deals just because you feel it might make you "weak" at a certain position.
One of the first things you should do in the offseason is look at your team and see who you feel has either a drop in value coming or whose value is just inflated. There is a fine line between selling high on a player and just selling a great player. I don’t worry about missing a year of solid production if the current return makes up for it. These are a few of the players that I believe should be “sells” for one reason or another.
There are many reasons to love having Adam Thielen on your dynasty team. I am not going to waste your time telling all of his accomplishments over the course of the last two seasons. We all know how good he has been. What this comes down to for me is that he is older than what many perceive him to be. I want to make sure that you sell while his value is still this high. Thielen is going to be 29 years old before the start of the regular season next year and I fully expect that his trade value will take a significant hit by the start of the following season when he will be 30 years old. Based on his current DLF ADP of 23.5, he is the 3rd oldest Wide Receiver in the top 35 overall. Julio Jones and Antonio Brown are the only two players that are older than Thielen with a higher Dynasty Trade Calculator value. I would be looking to get guys like Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper or Stefon Diggs. All these guys are being drafted right around Thielen and are at least a couple years younger.
This is the time I’ve been waiting for, for what seems like forever. I have stood on this hill since I saw the ROI that Lamar Miller got fantasy owners when he signed with the Texans. I identified Coleman as having that same opportunity once he hit free agency. This season was set up to be the perfect storm for Coleman. Devonta Freeman only played in two games, giving Coleman, who was playing in a contract year, his first real chance at a workhorse role since an injury cost him the starting job his rookie year. He finished the year with just under 1100 total yards and 9 touchdowns as the PPR RB18 and is the RB22 in Dynasty Happy Hour’s consensus rankings. The former third round pick set career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yardage and receptions but I think we can all agree that it was a bit of a disappointment. His January DLF ADP reflects this as well. His ADP dipped down to 59.5 overall. If you have not acquired him yet, this may be a bit of a buying opportunity now. Do not fall victim of the hype train though after he signs with a new team. Sell Coleman, preferably in a two for one type deal.
It is probably already too late to include Fournette here but I am anyway for the people that still roster him. Yes, I know, selling low is not a winning strategy in dynasty but the former LSU star has not had the start to his NFL career that he or his fantasy owners wanted. Through his first two seasons he has missed 11 games and has averaged under 4 yards per carry each season. This season he averaged 3.30 yards per carry which is the third lowest of all Running Backs with over 100 carries. The last time that Fournette ran for over 100 yards in a game was back in week 11 of the 2017 season. Possibly the scariest thing so far in his NFL career though is that the Jags were able to void the rest of his guaranteed money because of his suspension this year. I would be looking to get whatever I can for him at this point, within reason of course, he is still a 3rd round startup pick. I see a very real possibility that he could be out of the league in two years.
Lindsay exploded onto the scene with back-to-back 100 yard games to start the season as an undrafted rookie. He went on to join LeGarrett Blount and Dominic Rhodes as the only undrafted rookies to break 1000 rushing yards in their rookie season. He finished the year as the RB13 in PPR leagues and standard leagues. Now with the regular season over he made history once again as the first ever undrafted offensive rookie to make the Pro Bowl. Nobody can deny what this kid has done on the field. However, I’m not buying into Lindsay as a dynasty asset. He finished 27th in the league amongst Running Backs for snap share percentage (42.2%) and had only two games with at least 20 touches. With a small frame (5’8”, 190lbs) it is a concern for me if he will be able to stay on the field. It is slightly re-assuring though, that in 2017 at Colorado he had at least 19 touches in every game. Throw in his late season wrist injury that is expected to take 4 - 6 months to fully recover from though and I’ll gladly take my chance on a different Running Back. I would be looking to package him with a pick to get a player like Aaron Jones, Derrius Guice or Kerryon Johnson.
Le’Veon Bell sitting out this year confirmed that Running Backs don’t matter to some teams. I was always slightly confused how DeAngelo Williams put up such good numbers when he was in Pittsburgh. This made me dig a little deeper in to it and now it all makes sense. The running back in that offense will succeed. By “that offense” I mean a James Saxon coached Running Back group. Saxon has been the coach for Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh, Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes in Kansas City and Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in Miami. I can confidently say, it is not a good thing that he has just left the Steelers staff. Forget about that for a second though and let’s focus on Conner for a second. Even if you think he is the real deal, could he be really good and not have a season like this for the rest of his career? Yes. Yes he could. This season Conner only played in 13 games and racked up 280 PPR points. That comes out to a whopping 21.5 pts/game. There were only six Running Backs with a higher per game average. If you think pts/game is misleading, he finished as the RB6 in PPR leagues. Do you play in a standard league? Conner still finished as the RB6. Only five Running Backs finished the year with more total touchdowns. I’m drilling all this into your head because this could easily be James Conner’s best season as a pro. Even if he goes on to have a very nice career, he could never be this valuable again. Per DLF’s January ADP, Conner is the RB10 in dynasty. Again, I’m not saying he isn’t good. But please, put together a package and take advantage of this value to better your team.
Haven’t we seen this before? It seems like the Tight End position in Indy and under Frank Reich always produces. Reich has produced numbers with Gates and Ertz while he was an offensive coordinator and Indy has produced top 7 tight end finishes from Coby Fleener, Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron recently.
This year Doyle only played in 6 games which helped Ebron reach a career high in targets, yards and touchdowns. His 13 touchdowns is the biggest red flag for me though. I can easily see some negative regression coming next season. The last time the Tight End position had this many touchdowns was in 2014 when Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen combined for 16 touchdowns (Ebron alone had 13 this year). With Doyle coming back next year, I do not see these numbers being sustainable. In games that Doyle missed this season, Ebron’s numbers, other than touchdowns were significantly higher. Ebron comes in at TE7 per January’s DLF ADP. I would rather trade up for Howard or Engram or even down to Hunter Henry, who is theTE8 currently.
Keep an eye out next week for the players I’m looking to acquire in dynasty leagues. Always feel free to reach out to me on Twitter at @GeraldParker385 to discuss these or any other players.