Odell Beckham Jr, WR
DHH Expert Rank: 2
DHH ADP: 3
Similar ADP at position: DeAndre Hopkins(2), Antonio Brown(6), Mike Evans(8)
Conclusion: If I am doing a startup draft, chances are I am not drafting Odell. If I have a top 3 pick I am hoping to land Todd Gurley or Ezekiel Elliott, and settling for Hopkins if he is there at 1.03. A young stud running backcan help your team play for a title for years to come, and a Watson to Hopkins connection in Houston for possibly the next 5-10 years makes me excited. That being said, if these three players are gone Beckham is the easy choice. The next three running backs are right around the corner from being 30 year old running backs (Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson), or have yet to play a down in the NFL (Saquon Barkley). Brown has 5 years on Beckhamand I could easily see Beckham outscoring Brown as soon as this year. Odell should be taken well above Evans. Eli and Ben seem to be on the way out and Jameis Winston has the chance to be with Evans for years just like Watson and Hop, but is that a good thing? I don't want the inconsistency of Jameis throwing to my first round pick every year. I have Odell below his DDH ranking and ADP but give him to me at 4th overall all day.
DHH Expert Rank: 7
DHH ADP: 7
Similar ADP at position: Le’Veon Bell(5), David Johnson(9), Alvin Kamara(10)
Conclusion: After Gurley, Zeke, Hopkins and Odell get drafted, I am taking Antonio Brown just for the consistency. Then the 1.06 pick is the toughest choice in the first round for me. At the next three picks I am taking an running back, either Barkley, Le'Veon, or DJ. This is why 1.08 is actually my favorite pick this year in start-ups. I don’t mind which you prefer here but my first choice would actually be Barkley. It seems crazy but the 21 year old rookie is actually the safest pick. You get up to 5 more years of production and Barkley is actually in the best dynasty situation. We have four Giants weapons in the top 65 of our rankings and the oldest of the four is Odell at 25 years old. Even with Eli on his way out if these players stay in New York, this will be a productive offense to be a part of. Le’Veon will probably leave next year and he will either go to an offense that is much left productive than the Steelers, or one that doesn't use Bell nearly as much. As much as I love Johnson, I can see the potential risks. The quarterback play in Arizona is a question mark this year and the future of the offense is relying on Rosen being a reliable starter. Larry Fitzgerald is the only other proven weapon there, and this could easily be his last year. That Cardinals offense without Larry and without a good quarterback will lead to teams being able to put 8 in the box for DJ and even double teaming him when he comes out of the backfield in the passing game. If I have picks 6-8 I am hoping Barkley is there to solidify my RB1 position.
DHH Expert Rank: 49
DHH ADP: 56
Similar ADP at position: Zach Ertz(40), Hunter Henry(61), David Njoku(78)
Conclusion: I understand the beliefs that Engram is going to regress this year. Odell is back and now they have a running back that can get a heavy workload and catch passes out of the backfield. I agree that his targets will decline, but I think another year in the NFL will improve Engram’s play. Also, an improved offense will lead to more looks for Engram in the end zone. Engram is the best tight end value in the draft. No way am I taking Gronkowski, who could be in his last season, two rounds before 21 year old Engram. Travis Kelce is going in the same range as Gronk and is also seven years older than Evan. Engram has had a better fantasy rookie year than any other tight end in the NFL today. If Engram can become nearly the same player as Kelce it is a value to get him 2 rounds later and have him for many years after Kelce retires. Zach Ertz is going about a round earlier than Engram and he is six years older than Evan. Hunter Henry is out for the year and will have to come back from a torn ACL and is only going 5 picks after Engram. David Njoku is going two rounds after Engram and has not proven he can be a productive tight end in fantasy football. Basically, give me Engram in every draft I can get him.
DHH Expert Rank: 63
DHH ADP: 85
Similar ADP at position: Nelson Agholor(82), Christian Kirk(86), James Washington(88)
Conclusion: With all of the talk of Evan Engram due to regress because of a loss of targets, I actually think Odell and Barkley will take away looks for Shepard. Compared to the guys going around his ADP, I won’t end up with Shepard much. He is easily the fourth option in this offense. Agholor will be the Eagles WR1 with Alshon starting on the PUP. Kirk looks like he will be the third target in Arizona behind Fitz and DJ. James Washington sits in the same spot as Shepard as the fourth option in his offense, but players are more likely to leave Pittsburgh than they are in New York and I think we have seen the ability ceiling of Shepard. The way Pittsburgh grooms wide receivers makes me think James Washington could really be something special.
DHH Expert Rank: Unranked
DHH ADP: Unranked
Similar ADP at position: Case Keenum(296), Ryan Tannehill(UR), Joe Flacco(UR)
Conclusion: I felt strange mentioning all of his weapons without throwing Eli here. Yes, he is 37 years old. Yes, the Giants have a young quarterback in Kyle Laletta, waiting in the wings to take his spot. Because of this, if you are in a standard dynasty league Eli is nearly undraftable, depending on the depth of your league. I still think Eli will be a great streaming option, or late pick in a superflex/2QB league this year. He won’t lose his job this season and will have nice upside for such a low price.This offense will easily improve this year and there are elite weapons at each position, how could Eli not put up at least startable fantasy stats?