With the offseason crashing into full swing, it’s time for us to take a look at some of the running backs coming out this year. If you’re anything like me, you’ve been anxiously awaiting this time. For dynasty players, our season doesn’t end after the regular season is over, our season begins. This is when we get to “play scout” and try to predict what kind of success these young prospects will find at the next level. As i'm submitting this, the deadline for underclassmen to declare is expiring; I’ll post something for them once I have a final list to sort through, but for now I’ll be focusing on the seniors. There are a number of different factors that go into evaluating a player and a lot will change throughout the offseason, but one thing that won’t change from here out is a player’s production. Some owners don’t put a ton stock into production because there are many variables involved (opportunities, team strength, opponent strength), but I believe we can learn a lot about a player through their numbers. With only production in mind, let’s have a look at some of the senior prospects. Understand all measurements are unofficial and subject to change upon more information. 


Chase Edmonds, Fordham 5’9” 205

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
90%
5862
67
6.2
905
7
10.5

Edmonds headlines my production scores this year. He rushed for over 1800 yards as a true freshman and rounds out the rest of his profile very well. Had he not missed time with an injury this last year, these stats would be even higher. Edmonds has proven to be a workhorse with big play ability at the collegiate level, I’m excited to see what he brings to an NFL franchise. I’m not looking into his 5’9”, 205-pound frame too much right now; he’s more elusive than powerful and that’s what he uses to his advantage when creating yards, I can’t help but see a little Shady McCoy in this run.


Ja’Quan Gardner, Humboldt State 5’6” 200

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
85%
5432
70
6.2
767
4
9.5

Gardner is a division 2 player who shows up as someone to look into. Although these numbers weren’t at the D-1 level, what he did was still impressive. His best season came as a sophomore when he rushed for 2,266 yards and 25 touchdowns. That’s 188 yards and 2 touchdowns a game. I don’t care what level it is, that’s impressive. I had trouble finding a ton of tape to evaluate him, so there are still plenty of questions, but his production isn’t one of them. He’s one of the thicker backs coming out with an unofficial BMI just over 32.



Royce Freeman, Oregon 6’ 235

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
82%
5621
60
5.9
814
4
10.3

Freeman is one of my favorite prospects after Barkley this year and could be an amazing value in rookie drafts this spring. I’ve seen a lot of love, but plenty of hate for Freeman in the draft twitter world, which makes me think we could see a mid to late second round rookie ADP for him. Royce capped of his college career by planting his name atop the PAC-12 Rushing TD list. Freeman also holds the rushing yards record for Oregon and has more 100-yard rushing games than anyone in school history.




Trenton Cannon, Virginia State 5’11” 185

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
79%
4035
44
7.3
610
7
10.5

Cannon’s 7.3 yard rushing average is the second best of the backs I’ve evaluated so far. He did well on the ground and through the air showing 3-down ability. Unfortunately, he is listed at an unofficial 185 pounds. He might land a complimentary role, but he’ll need to remain efficient on a per touch basis if he’s ever going to be worth owning in fantasy. Guys his size are few and far between in the NFL. Regardless, you can’t ignore what he’s done.



Ito Smith, Southern Miss 5’9” 195

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
79%
4536
42
5.5
1446
7
10.3

Smith is a little thicker than Cannon but could also benefit from a few man dates with Eddie Lacey. It’s hard for me to say a guy is too small when we don't have official measurements and he hasn’t had a chance to see an NFL training program, Smith has certainly been effective as a dual threat. His 140 receptions rank 1st in the class and his 49 total TD’s are nothing to pass over either. Clearly this guy has a knack for the end zone and an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. He’s going to be an interesting guy to watch in PPR leagues for sure.



Martez Carter, Grambling State 5’8” 205 

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
79%
2628
29
6.6
961
9
13.0

Carter is an extremely polarizing prospect. Built kind of like MJD, he was very efficient whether running or catching the ball out of the backfield. His 6.6 yard rushing average and 13 yard receiving average are both top five in the class. I’ve loved watching his angry running style. He looks like he could fill a between the tackles role. If there’s one knock on his production profile it’s his volume. Carter also shows well in the return game which could make it easier for him to stick with a team. 



Nick Chubb, Georgia 5’10” 225

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
74%
4769
44
6.3
361
4
11.6

Chubb has been a big name in the devy world for years. Before his knee Injury some even said he could be better than his predecessor, Todd Gurley. Georgia continues to pump out some of the nations best running backs. Chubb’s only minor red flag in production is the lack of opportunities he received in the passing game. You can thank his running mate Sony Michel for that. Some say Chubb has lost a step since his knee injury, but his 6.4 yards per carry this past season would argue otherwise. Depending on his landing spot, Chubb could end up grading out as my number two back behind Saquon.



Rashaad Penny, San Diego State 5’10” 220

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
74%
3656
38
7.5
479
6
11.4

Penny will definitely have a spot in my top 10; how high he ends up will be determined by his combine metrics and where he goes in the draft. I’ve watched a few of penny’s games and he’s definitely my kind of runner. I’ll just ignore what I saw as poor pass blocking for now. He has the size to handle a heavy workload and will have plenty of chances to grow in other aspects of his game. Penny is first in the class in yards per carry and 9th in yards per reception. His combination of size and big play ability makes it unlikely he’ll slide very far into day three. In my opinion, he’s a day two guy in most draft classes. Did I mention he can catch?



Detrez Newsome, Western Carolina 5’9” 210

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
74%
3728
37
6.0
962
7
8.8

Newsome caught 109 passes, and scored over 40 touchdowns during his time at Western Carolina. He’s built short and thick too. It’ll be interesting to see which of these guys will get a chance to showcase themselves at the combine. If you ask anyone from Western Carolina, Newsome is the G.O.A.T. His combination of production and build should keep him on your radar going forward. For me, the athletic testing will be even more important for guys that played for smaller programs. I want to see him show up as a competitive athlete. If he’s not pushing at least a 4.50-4.55 40 time it will raise a red flag for me.

Sony Michel, Georgia 5’11” 215

% of Production Points   Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
72%
3613
33
6.1
621
6
9.7

Michel is every bit as talented as Chubb. When all is said and done, he’s unlikely to pass him on my grading scale, but if NFL teams favor Michel over Chubb in the draft, things could easily change. There are no red flags in his production that I can see. Given the fact that he battled Chubb and Gurley for snaps his entire career, his numbers should really be lower. If his role at Georgia is any indication, he’s going to be a great committee player with the ability to carry the load if called upon. 


That concludes my top 10 seniors from a production standpoint; below is a full look at the rest of the numbers for this year’s senior class. Keep in mind I’m still adding guys as they pop up. If there’s someone specific you’d like to see, I’d be more than happy to add them. There are at least 20 more senior prospects that I’d like to get through, but time only allows me to do so much. I hope these numbers help you in evaluating this class. If you have any questions or comments I’d love to hear them. You can find me on twitter @FFSkiBum


% of Production   Points Gained
Rush Yds.
Rush TD's
Rush Avg.
Rec. Yds.
Rec. TD's
Rec. Avg.
Chase Edmonds
90%
5862
67
6.2
905
7
10.5
Ja’Quan Gardner
85%
5432
70
6.2
767
4
9.5
Royce Freeman
82%
5621
60
5.9
814
4
10.3
Trenton Cannon
79%
4035
44
7.3
610
7
10.5
Ito Smith
79%
4536
42
5.5
1446
7
10.3
Martez Carter
79%
2628
29
6.6
961
9
13.0
Nick Chubb
74%
4769
44
6.3
361
4
11.6
Rashaad Penny
74%
3656
38
7.5
479
6
11.4
Detrez Newsome
74%
3728
37
6.0
962
7
8.8
Sony Michel
72%
3613
33
6.1
621
6
9.7
Larry Rose 
72%
4548
37
5.9
1157
5
8.7
Jarvion Franklin
72%
4867
52
5.2
670
4
11.0
Ray Lawry
69%
4080
45
6.2
496
3
8.3
Phillip Lindsay
62%
3775
36
4.9
1084
3
9.3
Akrum Wadley
62%
2872
28
5.4
761
7
10.7
Roc Thomas
59%
2322
23
5.9
644
2
11.9
Terry Swanson
59%
3601
31
5.9
492
2
8.9
Jeffery Wilson
59%
3205
32
5.7
527
2
7.5
Demario Richard
59%
3202
26
4.9
662
7
9.6
Dalyn Dawkins
56%
3300
14
5.6
734
3
9.3
Justin Jackson
56%
5440
41
4.8
858
1
7.0
James Butler
54%
3712
28
5.3
485
3
9.2
Anthony Philyaw
54%
2721
33
5.1
542
2
11.5
Ralph Webb
54%
4178
32
4.5
572
3
8.4
Jordan Huff
51%
2167
20
6.5
128
2
6.1
D’Angelo Brewer
51%
3917
23
5.2
278
2
8.4
Arkeel Newsome
51%
1952
14
4.4
1434
8
13.5
D’Ernest Johnson
51%
1796
16
4.3
899
12
12.5
Kyle Hicks
49%
2101
19
4.7
930
4
9.1
Nick Wilson
49%
3045
33
5.5
159
1
8.4
Boston Scott
46%
1840
14
6.4
307
1
9.6
Jordan Wilkins
46%
1751
14
6.3
322
1
10.1
Mike Boone
46%
2250
24
5.4
596
1
9.2
Jordan Chunn
44%
3124
47
4.6
558
0
6.6
Lavon Coleman
44%
2000
12
5.3
252
3
8.1
Ty Issaac
41%
1406
10
6.1
127
0
11.5
Keith Ford
41%
1743
24
4.9
305
1
10.2
Jarred Craft
41%
2130
17
4.7
489
7
7.4
Justin Crawford
38%
2244
11
6.3
106
1
4.8
Kalen Ballage
38%
1984
27
4.4
684
2
8.3
Darrell   Williams(FB)
38%
1651
19
5.1
462
0
12.2
Diocemy   Saint-Juste
38%
3102
13
5.4
219
2
5.6
Darius Tice
33%
1817
16
4.9
149
1
8.3
Reggie Bonnafon
31%
805
12
3.7
446
6
10.1
Gerard Wicks
28%
1475
19
5.1
460
1
4.7
Calan Crowder
23%
1810
14
4.9
684
2
8.3
Nate Starks
23%
802
8
4.5
202
1
8.1
Max Mickey
18%
1019
13
4.5
193
0
7.4